PWC Nigeria has said that the ongoing US-Israel and Iran war could reshape Nigeria’s economic outlook. In its Economic Briefing released recently, PWC noted that the conflict has introduced shocks to the global energy market, pushing oil prices to $102.83/bbl (Brent Crude) as at March 17, 2026, above Nigeria’s $64.85/bbl benchmark price.
This it said, has created the prospect of short-term excess revenue above fiscal targets for Nigeria through higher oil receipts. According to it, at current market conditions, the gross price premium amounts to roughly $55.5m per day, or about $20.2bn annually.
It noted that the conflict has also taken a toll on the gas market, with the JKM (Asian Spot) benchmark rising to $19.28/mmBtu as of 17 March 2026, up from $10.84/mmBtu at the end of February 2026, pointing out that at the 2026 budget exchange rate of ₦1,400/$, that is approximately ₦28.3tn before deductions, timing effects, and committed-volume constraints.
It stated that “However, crude-backed and refinery-linked obligations may reduce the pace and scale at which higher oil prices feed through to federation revenues. Higher oil prices also transmit rapidly into the domestic economy through fuel, logistics, and transport costs, increasing operating costs for businesses and household expenditure. This cost pass-through could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially reversing Nigeria’s recent disinflation trend, where inflation declined for 11 consecutive months to 15.06% in February 2026 following recent reforms”.
It however said that the ultimate impact of the conflict on Nigeria will depend on several factors, including the duration and scale of the conflict, disruptions to global oil supply and shipping routes, volatility in global commodity and financial markets, exchange rate dynamics, and the effectiveness of Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy response.
For businesses, it said that these developments create heightened cost and operating uncertainty, particularly through energy, transport, and input prices. “Firms will therefore need to anticipate potential cost increases, review exposure across supply chains and logistics, and prepare mitigation measures to manage the financial pressures that may arise if the conflict persists”, it said.
