The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Monday released Nigeria’s Q2-20 GDP figure, showing that the economy contracted, with real GDP printing -6.10% y/y (vs. 1.87% y/y in the previous quarter and 2.12% y/y in Q2-2019).

The growth outturn outperformed Cordros’ estimate (-2.87% y/y), owing to a negative surprise from non-oil GDP.

A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure showed that the oil sector plummeted significantly, contracting by 6.63% y/y (compared to growth of 7.17% y/y in Q2-19).

The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months to be 1.81mb/d, 10.4% y/y lower relative to Q2-19. The sector contributed 8.93% of total GDP (vs. 8.98% Q2-19) during the review period.

Conversely, output in the non-oil sector recorded a 6.05% y/y decline in Q2-20 (compared to growth of 1.64% in Q2-19), the first decline in real non-oil GDP growth rate since Q3-17.

The non-oil sector contributed 91.07% to total GDP, (vs. 91.02% and 90.50% in Q2-19 and Q1-20, respectively).

Analysing the breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP:

Agriculture grew by 1.58% y/y (vs. 2.20% y/y in Q1-20); Industries contracted by 12.05% y/y, (vs. 2.26% growth y/y in Q1-20); while Services declined by 6.78% (vs. 1.57% growth y/y in Q1-20).

In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 53.49%, 24.65%, and 21.87% of overall output growth.

(Cordros)