By Alexander Ekemenah

Caveat Emptor

Let it be know from the very beginning, as a caveat emptor, that this article should not be regarded as a praise for President Donald Trump of the United States of America and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at all. Not at all! But this article anchored on the doctrine of necessity as it is, it is the conviction that there comes some an unavoidable time in confluence or conjunction of history or arch of historical development that such men and/or women (and interestingly here, this writer has in mind an example of Golda Meir, the first female and late Prime Minister of Israel (1969-1974) (b. May 3, 1898 in Kyiv, Ukraine and died December 8, 1978 in Jerusalem), even Queen Amina of Zauzzau (Zaria) (b. 1533 and died 1610 in Nigeria) (here in northern Nigeria) are needed to carry out certain duties that could not be carried out by ordinary men no matter how morally repugnant or reprehensible those duties may be. And this is precisely what Trump and Netanyahu did with Iran that has unwittingly become a thorn in the flesh of the world to settle age-old scores between these three countries.

This article is not also a denunciation of Iran as a State nor its people but the Iranian State as currently constituted and headed by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the mullah leadership, the political and military leadership for making the world believe in what they are not, for subjecting the Iranian State itself and the Iranian people to the mercy of Israel and the United States and global ridicule and humiliation for its inability to defend Iran from the vicious attacks of the Israelis and the Americans.

This article is a preliminary layout of my thoughts about the Iran-Israel/American conflict. A comprehensive review of conflict would be carried out later.

This is because the situation is still very fluid, and there is no concretisation of events yet. The situation is still in a state of flux. This article should, therefore, not be regarded as rigid on anything and in any sense because rigidity is an incontrovertible evidence of incompetence. Ideological rigidity is probably one of the variable factors that did Iran in.

This article did not just look at the surface of events. It looks much deeper into the inner logics within larger logics, dynamics within larger dynamics, dialectics of events with benefits of historical hindsight and what lessons that can be drawn from them to enable us gain higher epistemological clarity than hitherto obtained from the disparate or potpourri of media reportages.

This article also attempts to have a global outlook on the unfolding events in the Middle East and not just from narrow perspectives of the main gladiators. With this global outlook, one can see the overall geopolitical implications of what has happened so far. The effects are not limited to the Middle East only but to the entire world.

The joint Israeli-American aerial bombardment of Iran no doubt has unarguably shattered the hitherto larger-than-life image of Iran as a regional power in the Middle East. Hitherto, Iran was regarded as a rising power, about to be nuclear-armed. But with the benefit of the theoretical knowledge of Thucydides Trap, then one can know what happens when a rising power clashes with established power(s), something terrible usually happens.

That’s exactly the tragedy witnessed during the 12-day aerial bombardment of Iran by the combined air firepower of Israel and the United States. The net-result is the shattering of the myth of the invincibility that has been woven around Iran as a regional power that has been cleverly orchestrated over the decades. Aftermath the attacks, a keen observer or analyst would not fail to notice that the Iranian State through its officials have become tempered both in their languages and actions. Their previously highly visible theatrics, inflammable rhetoric, mouthful boasts and swash-buckling swaggers have all disappeared overnight.

Exactly like the military invincibility of Russia was shattered on several occasions by Ukraine in the last three years. An example of such a surprise sprang by Ukraine is the latest Operation Spider Web which was launched on June 1, 2025, and which involved 117 remote-controlled drones that were smuggled into Russia over 18 month period and launched towards parked aircrafts by operators several miles away was a heroic example of what a small nation or small population can to do to a larger country with acknowledged military might. Russia is still reeling from the blows suffered from that drone attacks which destroyed some of their strategic bombers and forcing others to be moved further into the hinterland of Russia.

Evolution of Iranian State

For many decades now, especially since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ushered in the reign of the Mullahs led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini, no country and anybody know precisely how to deal with Iran. Iran grew in the last four and half decades to become an enigma. Although Iraq was the first to launch an attack on Iran on September 22, 1980, Iran became increasingly a lawless Leviathan in the attempt to assert its hegemony over the Middle East region. The war ended on August 20, 1988 with no clear winner or loser. The Iranian Revolution started in January 1978 and concluded in February 1979 in which Ayatollah Khomeini swept to power. Ayatollah Khomeini has hardly settled down before foraging into that precipitous war with Iraq. Iran spent fortune and the next eight years fighting the senseless war which at the end of the day did not achieve any fundamental gain for Iran except to put it on collision course with all other Arab nations. Notable among these Arab nations is Saudi Arabia with whom Iran never agree with and has engaged in hegemonic struggle for the supremacy over Islamic ideological doctrine and control: Shittism or Sunnism – the two major factions in Islam.

The war ended in 1988 with nothing to show for the human and material losses on both sides. But Iraq on the other hand, under the authoritarian leadership of Saddam Hussein, grew to also become a regional power to contend with in the Middle East. Indeed, it can be safely argued that Iraq grew by leaps and bounds to become a real threat to the Middle East stability while Iran temporarily receded to the background.

Iraq and Saddam Hussein eventually ran into stormy waters with the United States and got drowned in it. First, Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. The United States under George H. W. Bush responded with Operation Desert Sabre/Storm by cobbling together a pantheon of 42 nations to throw Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991. The dispute was primarily over the alleged slant drilling of oil in Iraq’s Rumaila oil field as well to offset Iraq’s large debt to Kuwait from the just-concluded Iran-Iraq War. Iraq was humiliated but not yet done. Saddam Hussein was still flapping its wing at the United States.

The war with Iraq which started on January 16, 1991 lasted only forty two days in a combined air and ground battle with Iraq been crushed militarily. The war ended on February 28, 1991. Iraq de facto withdrew from Kuwait but did not de jure surrender.

Then came another collision with the United States. It was the final opportunity for the United States to settle scores with the obdurate but dangerous Saddam Hussein. In 2003, aftermath the 9/11 incident of 2001, the United States under George W. Bush manufactured “cogent” reasons to go after the jugular of Saddam Hussein. The United States alleged that Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction that was likely going to be used against fellow Arab nations. These weapons did not include nuclear weapons per se – but arguably chemical weapons. United States also alleged that Saddam Hussein was in cahoots with Al Qa’eda the latter that has launched terrorist attack on the United States on September 11, 2001.

Thus the second Gulf War was launched against Iraq on March 20, 2003 by a coalition of Western powers. It was over for Saddam Hussein. He was later smoked out and arrested from inside a man-hole, put on trial and was later executed publicly. That was the end of Saddam Hussein and his reign of terror in Iraq. The Iraqi State was balkanised and partitioned and then held together again by a very fragile thread. Iraq had dared the Lion and was tragically devoured with no questions asked. The war officially ended on December 15, 2011. Iraq has never recovered from the shockwaves of the war till date.

The same scenario can be seen in the latest Israeli/American conflict with Iran. Iran’s cup has filled up! The historical inevitability of the conflict became iron-clad because Iran could not restrain itself from provoking Israel and the United States at a time when two countries are ruled by classic warmongers.

Since the 1979 Revolution which overthrew the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi-led monarchy and which brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini (May 17, 1900 – June 3, 1989) into power as the Supreme Leader, and after the American hostage crisis and the subsequent failed rescue mission have all blown over, no American President (from Ronald Reagan to Joe Biden) had ever wanted to have any useful engagement with Iran anymore. This was because the Americans have badly burnt their fingers with the Iranians especially with the CIA-led overthrow of democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh on August 19, 1953 and the imposition of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi who in turn had his reign ended abruptly and in the most humiliating manner too, in 1979. As a result, the United States has blockaded Iran with soft power means with the sole aim of undercutting and isolating it in the comity of nations. Sanctions were vicariously imposed on Iran most especially over its nuclear development programme. Overseas assets were frozen – as far as the US can do this without repercussions. How far the US was able to do this “successfully” is left to open debate! Iran was hemmed in and was choking. But Iran would not surrender because it has bent the dangerous corner and reached the point of no retreat or return.

Iran never seems to have conducted any soul-search, where it is coming from its Persian Empire origins to where it is going in the 21^st century. Modern day Iran probably did not know that the world has drastically changed for good or for bad. Arguably, there is no crime in the desire to become a regional power or one of the global powers to call shots across all spectrums of domains. But Iran did not realise that there are stiff-necked competitions going on around it in the region and globally. Iran’s major or original sin is to refuse others the right of existence and to life. Iran has issued “fatwa” on Israel and the United States, sentencing them to death in absentia and conducting scotch-earth terrorist acts against them wherever possible. It is just a question of time that another Battle of Gaugamela (331 BC) will take place between it and its sworn enemies. The modern-day version of that Battle of Gaugamela came into being in June 2025.  Iran was once again defeated ignominiously.

From the time of late President Jimmy Carter (1976-80) (including Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump (1.0) and Joe Biden) and the American running battle with Iran which culminated in the end of the reign of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979, the taking over of Iran by the Islamic clerics led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini, the student riot, the invasion of the American Embassy in Tehran, the hostage crisis, the failed rescue mission, America has been too fearful to go near Iran again because of its VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) conditions – until Donald Trump (2.0) arrived on the scene again. Donald Trump at his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, said he would like to be a global peace maker but later did not hesitate to order aerial attack on Iran on June 22, 2025 just barely five months in power in the White House in Washington.

Donald Trump has achieved what the previous administrations, from Jimmy Carter to Joe Biden, failed to achieve: bursting the image of invincibility of Iran. Donald Trump (2.0) has achieved a spectacular success in this regard by breaking the backbone of Iran with the aerial attack and forced it directly to sit down with its sworn enemy, Israel, for peace negotiation. Iran is inexorably coming to the negotiation table not as a victor but as a broken and defeated protagonist. Iran is coming from a weak position and not from position of strength of a nuclear power. Iran is coming to the negotiation table as an amputee with crutches and not with healthy limbs. That is what Iran did to itself by its unfounded and unwarranted aggressive posturing against its neighbours especially those it regarded as its enemies that are actually more powerful than it is.

On the other hand, Iran was gallivanting, grandstanding and striding like a colossus in the Middle East, threatening fires and brimstones on its neighbours proclaiming superiority of military, ideological and religious puritanical power. Iran assumed the position of regional power which was not conferred on it by anybody. It embarked on nuclear development programme, albeit it with connivance of certain Western powers, but which became an extreme sore and disputation point particularly with the United States and Israel. Iran is encouraged and emboldened by other superpowers such as Russia and China (including extenuating factors) in order to counter-balance the overwhelming influence of the United States in the Middle East.

Iran never dreamt that one day may come, since the 1979 Revolution, when its carefully orchestrated, cultivated or calibrated propaganda as an invincible regional power may come under severe test and come crashing down. Not even with the emergence of Donald Trump as the American President in 2016 who left no doubt in the public mind that he would be too happy to end the Iranian nuclear development programme once and for all. President Joe Biden was too engrossed with the Russo-Ukrainian War and other domestic challenges to pay too much attention to the growing antics and menace of Iran. The day of reckoning was just around the corner.

In short, Iran never bargains for the second coming of Donald Trump and that makes a whole lot of difference in its pugilist foreign policy outlook and thrusts.

Iran did not also bargain for the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel despite the baggage of corruption and authoritarianism hauled by him on his shoulder back to the seat of government in Jerusalem.

Tragically too, even with the emergence of these two “mad caps” in Washington and Jerusalem, Tehran failed to do proper due diligence on these two personalities. Tehran’s strategic intelligence failed to predict the dominant characteristics of these two personalities in their hostile foreign policy outlook and thrusts towards Tehran.  Tehran failed to understand the increasing hostile global and regional environment – which a lightning rod may come suddenly to set off the fuse of the ticking time bomb and lit up the Iranian night skies. Tehran failed woefully to see the slowly gathering storm on the horizon.  Tehran failed miserably to see the swinging pendulum against it and the tilting global and balance of power and terror against it.

Iran never thought Israel would come after its jugular in the middle of the nights or on bright sunny days. Iran never thought the United States would join Israel to come to amputate its limbs; spite its nose and add insult to injury by going after its nuclear facility sites. In twelve or just one night, Iran’s pride and most precious gem were gone, cast into the dust. Its crown was torn to pieces.

Nobody came to its rescue.

It is amazing to see how Iran that has hitherto helped to assist Russia in its war with Ukraine, and thus prolonging the war with supply of killer drones and other habiliments of war could suddenly find itself exposed, abandoned and completely helpless against the onslaught of Jerusalem and Washington within only twelve days of aerial bombardment and was brought down to its knees and forced to the negotiating table with its mortal enemies.

What happened?

Iran is largely regarded, at least in the eyes and minds of Western media, as Number One Sponsor of International Terrorism, rightly or wrongly. Iran never actually denied this weighty albatross of an allegation – and this is proven by the numbers of terrorist acts carried out against numerous American targets and other Arab nations linked to Iran. Iran has used the Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in North Yemen to fight Saudi Arabia and intimidate it including other Middle East countries in proxy warfare. Iran has never hidden the fact that it sees America as its Number One Foe. It has never hidden the fact that it seeks to destroy America, Israel and seeks to bend other Arab nations not amenable to its national security interests, including ideological and religious interests, to its overarching will. In short, Iran has cultivated the image of invincibility and infallibility as a regional power and is rightly regarded so as a repository and exponent of international terror.

But when the combined terror of superior firepower of Israel and America came visiting its airspace, the Iranian State-sponsored terrorism disappeared as if it has never existed. Iran ran like a frightened rabbit, running away from a predator, running from one pillar to another, seeking safe haven in bunkers. Thousands of Iranians fled the country to neighbouring countries within twelve days. Iranian military cowered and buckled, keeling over, finding no safe havens to hide its commanders. Iranian military commanders were killed in dozens. So also were its nuclear scientists. One would have thought that the hitherto fearsome Islamic Republican Guard Corps would rise up like desert warriors to confront and give a good account of itself in battle with Israeli Army. One would have thought that the Iranian Air Force would immediately scrambled its fighter jets to confront and challenge the Israeli warplanes that entered into its airspace to a gruelling dog-fights – not knowing that Iranian Air Force is just a collection of children paper kites! No single Israeli warplane was shot down during the harrowing twelve days of aerial warfare.

When the Americans also came calling with a fleet of 125 modern combat aircrafts, Iran did not even know that enemies have entered its airspace. The Americans dropped their payloads of bombs and left as they came – stealthily. If the Iranians could not “kill” any Israeli war birds that are not stealthy, how does one expect them to “kill” any American war bird that they cannot even see at all? At any rate, despite the pompous claims about its air superiority, the Iranians have no combat aircrafts that can chase after the American war birds across the Atlantic Ocean on their way back home. They did not know that the American stealthy flying stallions came to pay them nocturnal courtesy visit until they have long gone. They did not know the route they took in coming in or the route they took in flying out. They could not even challenge the Israeli war birds in their airspace when the Israelis came calling not once but several times, even in the bright sunny days, taking absolute control of its airspace during the 12-day “Horus” invasion of its airspace while Israel was able to defend its own airspace with its Iron Dome. Iran has no Iron Dome.

This was the inexplicable conundrum.

Ides of June

The crisis or conflict between Iran and Israel did not occur by happenstance. It did not start yesterday. It has been long in coming. It has been a long-drawn battle of wits. Israel was bidding its own time when it can hit back at the weakest point in Iranian defence: its airspace. The decision to attack Iran from the air is momentous and potent. It was not taken lightly. It was taken after a careful evaluation of Iranian military using SWOT analysis. A ground battle was ruled out because it was most probably strategically not feasible – though not impossible at all. A ground battle would have caused more loss of lives to both sides than imagined. Naval warfare is also ruled out because it would not hit Iran at the most sore point.

The conflict can be traced back to April 2024 when Iran launched the first wave of ballistic missiles into Israel. The Israelis’ Iron Dome was there to deflect most of the incoming missiles of death and destruction.  Iran felt it was not yet done with Israel. The second wave came in early October 2024. Still, the Iron Dome was readily available to fend off these ballistic missile attacks. While Israel was actively engaged with Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon after the surprise attack by the Hamas also in October 2024, Israel was secretly planning retaliatory strikes against Iran.

After Israel decided to strike on June 13, 2025, it hit very hard – hard enough for the Iranian State to run for cover from the unexpected rainstorms from the sky. The attack was planned to the minute details, leaving no room for errors. Iranian air defense and radar system were shut down or knocked off before the wave of aircrafts came to start raining death and destruction upon a hapless Iranians sleeping peacefully in their homesteads. The Israelis went after the Iranian military assets and have many of them knocked down, preventing them from early warning alertness and response. The nuclear facilities were also hit but not hard enough to destroy them. That was when the Israelis cried out to the Big Boss across the Atlantic: Please, come to our aid to settle this vexatious Iranian nuclear development programme once and for all.

June 13, 2025, thus became a critical turning point not only in the evolution of the Iranian State but also in the relationship between the warring parties including other Arab nations that were keenly watching the unfolding scenario. Iran reached an inflection point but without learning any lesson from it at all. Israel proved itself to be a worthy adversary to contend with – no matter the personal reprehension that many a people may feel. Israel has defended itself effectively. It has served enough deterrence notice to all other pocket enemies: don’t tango with us! We could be as dangerous as a rattle snake!

The attacks were sudden, sharp and brutal. They were an un-gentlemanly warfare that has no iota of respect for the rules of war or international law because of the gravity of what are at stake. There was no equivocation about its main goal: to teach the Iranian State a hard lesson in realpolitik. Surprisingly, however, the attacks were not aimed at regime change in Iran.

The balance of power and terror has shifted in favour of Israel and other Arab nations. Never again would Iran grandstand anybody.

Iran has lost on all fronts through which it has hitherto carried out its campaign of terror against Western interests in the Middle East. Israel has decimated the Hamas in Gaza, Jordan and Lebanon including Syria. Israel has dealt devastating blows against Hezbollah in all its operating zones most especially in Lebanon. The Americans and the Saudis also individually and collectively dealt with the Houthis operating from North Yemen. Iran lost its foothold in Syria. So also was Russia. The new regime in Syria is hostile to both Iran and Russia for subjecting the country to agonising oppression for decades before the Syrian government headed by Assad was sent packing and fleeing from Damascus. Syria would have been too glad now to severe all relationships with them but certain considerations that are holding it back from doing so.

The pride and crown jewel of the Iranian 46-year development programme (since 1979), constructing a new State after the image of the Ayatollahs-led hypnotic theocratic government as epitomised by the nuclear development programme became object of public discourse, of ridicule after being disgracefully shattered and torn to pieces by the Israeli and American aerial attacks. Precisely the way Israel destroyed the Iraqi facility at Osirak/Tammuz on June 7, 1981 in what is known as Operation Opera using the American-made (but modified by the Israel Defence Force) F-15s Strike Eagle and F-16 Falcons. These combat jets are still in use to date. They were part of the Israeli combat air fleet that dominated the Iranian airspace in the month of June 2025. The same jets were part of the American fleet that flew from across the Atlantic to rain death from the Iranian airspace.

It would be recalled how an Israeli fighter squadron flew past Saudi Arabian airspace to attack the Iraqi Osirak or Tammuz nuclear research facility near Baghdad in 1981. Iraq never made it back to its nuclear programme again.

Iran has been building its “regional” power base for over 40 years, since 1979 to be precise but lost it all in just 12 days in the month of June 2025. Historians will write about this and how it happened in the next decades, drawing lessons for the future beyond what this article is able to achieve here now.

Incredulity can only be the outcome of an overview of the performance of the Iranian State and/or military. Iran proved itself beyond all reasonable doubt that it is unable to match the Israel firepower in the sky or any form of modern warfare. Iran could not simply fight a modern warfare. Israel completely took over the Iranian airspace for twelve days. Iran could not shoot down any of the Israeli war birds that came shrieking and raining death and destruction down from the Iranian airspace. How could this have happened?

Not a single anti-aircraft missile was fired at the rampaging Israeli warplanes overhead. Not a single Israeli aircraft was shot down.

The wave of attack came continued for the next twelve days when the Americans came to join the Israelis, which was aimed directly at the military high command centres and the nuclear facility sites. Nuclear scientists trained over the decades were yanked off of the streets by nearly a dozen. These are trained professionals who are very hard to come by. They are special breeds. They enjoy privileges not available to many other scientists. They are well protected. Yet the Israeli MOSSAD went after some of them in the shadows of the nights and picked them off. Indeed, the whole of Iran became a playground for Israeli MOSSAD agents. Where were Iranian intelligence and counter-intelligence?

After the wave, the Iranians came with their middle-range ballistic missiles that survived the Israeli aerial attacks. They launched them towards Israel. Some found targets. But how many targets compared to what were destroyed in Iran in the 12-day aerial combat?

On the Israelis’ part, their Iron Dome is still largely iron-clad protecting Israel from majority of the aerial barrage of the Iranian ballistic missiles. The Iron Dome is still working and has proven its mettle in defending the Israeli airspace. But when the Israelis couldn’t bust the bunkered nuclear facilities, they cried out to their boss across the Atlantic Ocean: the Promethean US.

The Coming of the Americans

The game of thrones, of deception and subterfuge (the most modern and deadly strategic intelligence and counter-intelligence) started which the Iranians could not decipher and understand. US said it has no hand in the Israeli air attack on Iran. The Iranian Intelligence couldn’t read the lips and body language of its mortal enemies.

But unknown to the public, the Americans have been quietly planning in conjunction with the Israelis few months earlier an attack that will shake Iran to its foundation and bring it to its knees.

The decision to attack Iran has long been taken before the actual attacks took place. The date may not be known for many years to come. But after some hesitations, Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran: surrender to Israel and come over to the negotiation table. It was both an ideological and political warfare against Iran – without Iran possibly not knowing it at the time.

Iran thought the US was bluffing. Okay. We shall see who is going to blink first. Trump was in Canada for the 51^st G-7 Summit at Kananaskis, Alberta, from June 15 to 17, 2025. He rushed back to Washington on June 16 to consult with the National Security Council. It was the auspicious time to sign off on the decision. Trump was to later issue a second warning: I will decide in two weeks whether to attack you or not. Iran could not read between the lines. The decision has already been taken – remaining only appropriate timing.

Few days later, on June 22, 2025, the Americans came with a fleet of 125 combat aircrafts across the Atlantic Ocean, like the army of Poseidon, or flying war horses or unicorns including a submarine already stationed at Mediterranean Sea, under CENTCOM, armed with Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. The air fleet included seven most deadly air dominance war birds: the B-2 Spirit Stealth long-range strategic bombers.

The Americans did not deploy their B-1B Lancer stand-off long-range strategic nuclear-carrying bombers. They did not bring their much more powerful or fearsome subsonic B-52 Stratofortress strategic nuclear bombers that have seen many wars. The B-1 Lancer and B-52 Stratofortress are stand-off long-range strategic bombers. This means they can fire their weapons from long distance without necessarily entering your airspace. They are also nuclear missiles-carrying aircrafts.

Three of the fearsome war birds, the B-2 Spirit, have diverted to the Western United States as a decoy just in case anybody picks up the smell of a rat somewhere. Nobody did. The operation was a closely guarded secret until it became known after the raid.

The second air fleet comprising seven B-2 Spirit bombers headed for the Iranian airspace, carrying two GBU-57/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator bombs each. The air fleet passed through many airspaces in the dead of the night without fear, like the silent killers they are, like “Storm Shadows”. The 7 B-2 bombers of the 509^th Bomb Wing of the USAF, escorted by other combat aircrafts, departed from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri and headed straight to Iran. Their main targets are the nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The air raid was codenamed “Midnight Hammer”. And it was indeed a hammer blow in the middle of the night!

Nobody saw them coming. Nobody warn the Iranians about the Ides of June heading for its jugular in the dead of the night.

They were carrying deadly weapons, which included GBU-57 MOP bunker-busting bombs controlled by satellites in encoded commands. The GBU-57 MOP bombs have never been used before in any battle space. Time to show them off in a very spectacular way! Iran was the testing ground.

The Ohio-class nuclear submarine, likely USS Georgia, stationed in the Mediterranean Sea under CENTCOM was the first to fire its deadly salvo of the fearsome Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets across Iran. The submarine fired about 30 Tomahawk missiles at Iran’s nuclear facilities.  These missiles rarely miss their targets. These missiles are well battle-tested in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo and many other places. They are usual first weapons of choice for the Americans. They are ground-levellers before other weapons can be brought to play.

Then, the B-2 bombers offloaded their GBU-57 MOP bunker buster bombs on the three nuclear sites firing 14 bombs at them. This was followed by the F-15 Eagle strike fighter jets offloading their own deadly weapons, shattering the peace of the night while the military commanders were sleeping with their heads well tucked into their anuses or banging their women in the “oza” rooms.

The grounds shook to their cores. The tectonic plates shifted involuntarily although the grounds did not tear apart. It was a night Tehran would not forget in a hurry.

The F-15 strike Eagle, alongside F-16 Falcon, F-18 Hornets including F-22 Raptors are vintage but deadly American war birds not to talk of the modern F-35 Lightning II and their variants. F-22 and F-35 are Stealth combat jets.

Mission accomplished. The air fleet headed back to their home bases at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. Not a single shot fired from the Iranians. The war birds have long gone, have almost reached their hangars before the surviving top-brass military sleepy heads woke up. Chase after the war birds that have almost reached their homes? Impossible! Except you want to commit suicide. At any rate, the Iranians have no combat aircrafts capable of crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

The Iranians did not know what had happened, how it happened, and why it happened – until the announcement from the White House by Donald Trump. They did not know what hit them on the head. Iran failed miserably to pierce and read through the volley of tantrums spewed out often by Donald Trump.

Where were the Iranian supporters: the Russians, the Chinese, and the North Koreans? They were nowhere to be found. They all folded their arms while the Israelis and the Americans were pummelling the Iranians from the air. Israel has taken control of the Iranian airspace doing what they like – like happy birds.

It was after the damages have been done that the Russians, the Chinese and the North Koreans started jerking their knees and mouthing those already well-known diplomatic hackneyed and bland phrases.

One could only wonder what they might have been thinking in the solitude of their military circles and command posts. Scratching their heads in wonderment how the Americans pulled off this coup d’état in the dead of the night!

The joint attack on Iran by the Israelis and the Americans was a strongly-worded message to the Russians, the Chinese and the North Koreans: Don’t mess around with us!

To the Russians: You better end that your useless war with Ukraine – otherwise we might as well decide to arm Ukraine with more deadly weapons that will shatter you to pieces.

To the Chinese: Don’t mess with Taiwan. Stop that your useless grandstanding of Taiwan. We know what to do if you dared to launch any attack across the Taiwan Strait.

To the North Koreans: Be careful! Don’t mess with South Korea and Japan. We can take the battle to you right across the DMZ. Then we shall see who the Master is!

The Arabs did not raise a voice. They were secretly happy that Iran is being dealt with in a comeuppance for always fomenting troubles everywhere and practically grandstanding all of them. Iran has been tormenting the Arab nations proclaiming itself the Lord of the Middle East.  The Arab leaders were dancing in their palaces that their collective Number One Enemy has been brought down to its knees.

No Arab nation is seen to have sided with Iran even when they are most probably fearful of Israel. It would be recalled that when Donald Trump visited the Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE) just a month earlier, from June 12 to 14 to be precise, the Arab Emirates and Governments were falling over each other to please DJT, genuflecting before him, lavishing him with praises, money and gifts. Qatar even dashed him a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner jet to be converted into a new presidential jet (Air Force One).

Then DJT told Iran: Go and negotiate with Israel. After that, sin no more! Negotiate with your avowed mortal enemy? What humiliation could be greater than that? What a mess? How did Iran come to this sorry pass?

One can only scratch his head severally trying to fathom the locked mystery behind this sordid display of farce by the Iranian State. To unlock this mystery perhaps one can go back to history and note for instance, how Alexander the Great also humiliated the Persian Empire headed by Darius III. It should also be noted how Alexander spared the wives of Darius and allowed them to live peacefully with him in the Palace.

Note the present similarity in this regard. DJT told Israel: Don’t go after Ayatollah Khameini, the Supreme Leader of Iran.  Spare him, please. Let him be and live.

One wondered why DJT did that. It might be ostensibly to allow Ayatollah Ali Khomeini to witness the humiliation of his country. After all, he was nowhere to be found while his country of which is the Supreme Leader was under bombardment by his avowed enemies, one after the other. He was hiding in a bunker with his billowing cloak like the real coward of a rat that he is running from the cat!

Where was the Iranian President, Massoud Pereshikian? He was also hiding like a chicken mortally afraid of the hungry roving hawk in the sky.

After the Milky Way humiliation, the Iranians trooped to the streets with clenched fists and waving flags, carrying placards to celebrate their “victory” over their enemies.  Which victory? It is an incredible display of self-delusion. Or one could ask: Is this a delusion or something else that we are yet to find appropriate word? Where were all the displays of bravado, the self-righteous bravura, the supreme confidence over what you don’t have?

Remember the Battle of Gaugamela? That’s what repeated itself again in June 2025. It was an echo from the past.

To the Israelis, their inability to take out the nuclear facility sites would remain an unfinished business for a long time to come – without the intervention of the Americans with their military might especially the wizardry to take out those nuclear sites. That was probably the rationale for calling for American intervention. Israel admitted it does not have the capability to take out the hardened nuclear facility sites. And that is why the call-out to the Americans as being regarded as the masters of the game armed with the technological wherewithal to strike deeper into the caverns of those nuclear sites than the Israelis could do. Does anybody reasonably expect the Americans to fold their arms while Iran rises again to now threaten Israel with nuclear weapons?

It is increasingly becoming clear that the Iranian theocratic State is fast losing its appeal, is having its cup filled to the brim and it is only a question of time that the cup will spill the content and have the cup itself discarded by the people of Iran themselves. That time may not be too far from now. A Second Iranian Revolution is inexorably looming on the horizon.

After the successful attacks, Iranians and their social media sympathisers also trooped online to assert that the attacks were a Pyrrhic victory. The attacks did not totally destroy the Iranian nuclear sites and assets. Iran can still make a nuclear bomb, etc! Poor fools! They were aided by the American Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary assessment that rated the attack on scale of success.

It is not whether the nuclear facility sites, especially the Fordow Fuel Enrichment site was “completely obliterated”, “seriously damaged” or “partially damaged” or not. It is the prestige of the Iranian State, the military and the ruling political class that is damaged beyond repair – beyond what can be quantified now.

But this is not a matter of destruction of the nuclear sites or not. That debate is for the American domestic politics and objective assessment by the military establishment. What is rather most important, and a point being cleverly evaded by the hordes of Iranian sympathisers, is that some persons entered and violated the Iranian airspace but the Iranian leaders were found snoring. That is the humiliating point: that at the end of the day Iran was not a worthy adversary after all.

The intervention of Washington in the conflict between Iran and Israel ultimately shifted global attention to Washington where institutional fights are taking place between the White House, Congress, Department of Defense (DoD or Pentagon) and the Media – again underscoring the beauty and virility of democracy, attributes that are not readily available in many other countries including Iran, Russia, China, North Korea and other quasi-authoritarian states.

What the Iranians and their loyalists did not know or failed to realise is that this is not even the core of the matter at hand at all. The American DIA assessment is a different ball-game entirely. It was a post-attack assessment which is normal and acceptable everywhere. The institutional strength for self-assessment after major outings cannot be abridged, at least in the United States.

What is most important, which is the purport of this preliminary analysis here is that Iran has suffered a self-inflicted humiliation that cannot be explained by any known rational means. Iran showed itself as an impotent State, as a toothless bulldog when faced with the real fireworks or firepower of its enemies. Iran showed itself as a weak State contrary to what it has coerced people to believe with its propaganda over the decades.

Betrayal

Iran was clearly abandoned by all its friends if it actually and truly has any. Most horrifying in the betrayal of Iran was Russia which abandoned it at its greatest hours of need, the same Iran that has been supplying arms and ammunitions to Russia in its war against Ukraine. If Iran has not been supplying arms to Russia, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Russia could have suffered more fundamental setbacks if not complete defeat from the hands of the Ukrainian heroic warriors. Thus the Iranian sins actually go far beyond the Middle East region – as far as helping another superpower to fight a much smaller entity such as Ukraine that has put up a brave fight to confront its greatest mortal enemy: Russia. But could Russia have been able to help Iran at its greatest hours of need when Russia itself is already in a death struggle with an implacable enemy: Ukraine? Hardly! Iran was thus left to itself to survive if it can – if not it can as well die and nobody would have time to mourn its death because it calls for its own death by provoking more powerful enemies to a aerial dog-fight that it has no power to counter.

Russia did not want to cross any red line with the US – not with the largely unpredictable Donald Trump in the White House. It would be the last thing for consideration for Vladimir Putin to provoke Donald Trump to a street fight. Russia most probably knows that it cannot face the US in a confrontation of this type given its already well-known woeful performance in the Ukrainian War. It is a public knowledge that it is the US and its European allies that have helped Ukraine to hold Russia at bay for the past three years of the War. Russia is already drained in the war with Ukraine and could not have been able to intervene on behalf of Iran without compromising its war efforts against Ukraine.

Russia’s hand is further manacled by the fact that it is Israel that first engaged Iran and do not see itself fighting against Israel because of the old-age cordial bilateral relationship that exist between the two countries. It is in the best interests of Russia not to intervene or interfere but fold its arms to see where the pendulum of superiority contest would swing. It is suicidal against its national interest for Russia to get embroiled in the Israeli-Iran duel for supremacy where it has failed so far to achieve supremacy over Ukraine after three years of fratricidal war in which it has suffered more than 500, 000 casualties. How could Russia have helped Iran to fend off American air raid and bombardment when Russia did not even know that the Americans were coming for the jugular of Iran on that fateful day; when Russia is also engaged in a life-and-death struggle with Ukraine?

In short, Russia was nowhere to be found to help its major ally or proxy in the Middle East: Iran. Shame!

Now, what messages can we draw for other superpowers? It would be apposite to cull from Russia’s contemporary experiences.

Russia, including North Korea and China has been mentioned. Why? In the case of Russia, the War in Ukraine was clearly uncalled for. But it has hooked Russia by the throat like a bone that can neither be swallowed nor spewed out.  What is interesting about the Ukraine War is that Ukraine is not a rising power by any yardstick at all.

When Ukraine broke away from Russia in August 1991, the nuclear weapons domiciled in Ukraine were bargained off and returned to Russia.  Why? Because the US and other Western powers do not want Ukraine as a nuclear-armed power to contend with alongside Russia.  Washington and other European capitals were able to persuade the emergent leadership of Ukraine at that time that it does not need nuclear weapons to defend itself against any outside invasion, even from Russia.

The Ukrainian leadership swallowed this argument, not knowing that it is setting itself up for a micro Thucydides Trap in the immediate future.

But let’s cast our gaze back into history. Russia has been a warmonger all along. Modern examples can be cited from the 1930s.

1. There was Soviet invasion of Poland from September 17 to October 1939. This was after the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact signed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union on August 23, 1939.
2. Then, there was the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran on 25 August 1941 to September 17, 1941.
3. There was Soviet invasion of Manchuria from August 9 to August 20, 1945.
4. There was Soviet invasion of Hungary from October 23 to November 11, 1956. This was an invasion to crush the spontaneous uprising of the Hungarians to liberate themselves from Communism and Soviet influence.
5. This was followed by Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia from August 20 to August 21 1968.
6. Then comes the icing on the cake: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from December 1979 to February 1989.
7. This was the same time of the war between Iran and Iraq 1979-1988.
8. Soviet Union disintegrated in 1989/90.
9. Russia took over what was left of the Soviet Union.
10. Russia has embarked on the same path that brought Soviet Union down.
11. Russia invaded Transnistria, Moldova in 1992.
12. Russia invaded Chechnya on December 11, 1994.
13. Russia invaded Abkhazia, Georgia on August 7 and ended on August 16, 2008, including South Ossetia
14. Russia invaded Crimea, Ukraine in March 2014.
15. On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine again.

Most analysts thought this latest war would be over within a few weeks, if not within days – that Ukraine has no chance of standing up to the Russian military might. After all, Russia is a superpower (armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons), while Ukraine is not, indeed, nothing to write about as a military power. Indeed, on the ranking of global military firepower, Ukraine is almost nowhere to be found.

All analysts and watchers of the War were wrong. Even before the arrival of Western arms, Ukraine has unexpectedly dealt deadly blows against the Russians. So, how has Ukraine been able to hold a nuclear power at bay for over three years now? What account for this resilience? The rest is history.

It is well known that there is what is called war in classical terms, and there is also battle. The two are not necessarily the same. The battle space is never cast in stone, never static. One can win a war without winning the battle, vice versa. The battle terrain in Ukraine is in constant flux, and it is not certain who is going to win the war or who is going to win the battle. Thus it would be wrong intellectually to cast one’s perspective in POP, in a rigid form that only takes new realities to break the POP of rigid mindset and perspective.

China

So also is China that has been courting Iran and other Arab countries for the last couple of years. China did no wrong here – it is merely extending its influence or projecting its power to the region to fill in the gaps inadvertently left by the United States. China is more particularly interested in having strong bilateral economic relationships with the Middle East countries most especially Iran that is most hostile to the United States and Israel. China is more careful with Israel that is not only slippery as an eel but easily provoked into a street fight at the drop of a feather. China failed to recognise and understand the undergirding political dynamics and hegemonic struggle for supremacy in the region. China failed to recognise that the region is virtually under the effective influence of the United States that had single-handedly propped up all the monarchies in the region and also arming Israel to the teeth to help keep watch over the region.

For instance, while many Middle East countries have purchased arms from other countries, the largest proportions of their arms are from the United States. China has not sold any known significant arms to Iran or any other Arab nations. Thus when it comes to street fights and exchange of blows (military showdown with the Israelis and the Americans) with Iran, China scurried away like a frightened chicken. China did not want to get involved in that grisly and unpredictable affair. China did not know where the headwind and tailwind are headed. Middle East has been historically volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. It is an environment often characterised by unexpected whirlpool of sandstorms. It is thus better and safer not to get involved in something you don’t understand. China does not want to raise its voice against the American military might at least for now. China therefore refused to lift a finger in any manner that can be defined and described as an attempt to defend Iran and concomitantly a challenge to the American military might.

China has been historically wary of “unnecessary” interference in the affairs of two warring nations. It is cautious as a strategic policy. China did not directly get itself involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War. China is also wary of North Korea despite the fact they are both the same ideological bedmates.

China could only watch helplessly while its so-called ally is being mauled like bull dogs by the Israelis and the Americans. China could not also have been able to do anything significant at any rate because of the time frame. Could President Xi Jinping have ordered advanced Chinese fighter jets at a very short notice to come to rescue Iran? Where would such Chinese fighter jets fly through without the Americans detecting them through their satellites in space? Ultimately what could China have done to help Iran ward off the Israeli and the American attack within that 12-day time frame when China did not also know that the Americans were already airborne with an air fleet of 125 combat aircrafts headed for Iran? Nothing! Its global military monitoring satellites did not see the flying American stallions heading for Iran.

The incident, however, has caused China to pause to do a deeper soul-search and rethinking of its global strategy of power projection vis-à-vis the United States. China has been flapping its Dragon wings for a couple of years now especially in the South China Sea, and also in the Indo-Pacific contesting the maritime domain with the United States and its allies in the Far East. China has claimed superiority and/or dominance in the Taiwan Strait believing rightly or wrongly that it already has Taiwan by the ball or under its armpit and it is only a question of time that it would launch an attack across the Strait and head for Taipei to overthrow the democratic rule already established there for many decades now. China might have been caused to do a deeper soul-search of what would happen if it decides to attack Taiwan and if the United States decides to throw its hat in and goes in for the spoils.

Given the inevitable lessons of the 37-hour sortie of the American flying stallions led by the seven B-2 Spirit strategic bombers, can China truly be able to withstand the onslaught of American air and naval attacks across the Taiwan Strait if China decides to attack Taiwan to claim it as part of One China? The lessons of 1995 are still fresh in the memory. It would be recalled that in 1995 when China was threatening Taiwan, Bill Clinton administration decided to send aircraft carrier groups in a show of muscle through the Taiwan Strait as a warning to the Chinese to be careful lest it provoke a war in the Strait. That was when USS Belleau Wood (LHA-3) transits the Taiwan Strait and China responded by carrying out a large-scale naval exercise which included 59 naval vessels and 192 aircraft sorties in August. This was followed again by much powerful USS Nimitz (CVN-68) and its battle group in December transiting the Strait in response to Chinese threatening large-scale naval exercises in August.  Tension remained high almost throughout 1996 when China repeated its naval exercises but was eventually forced to sullenly acknowledge the superiority of the American naval firepower.  China was forced to scurry away from the temptation to invade Taiwan at that time to claim it once and for all.

Of course, a lot of things have taken place or changed since then. The balance of power and terror has shifted this way and that way. Notable along this development is the modernisation of the China’s PLA which has emerged as the third most powerful military in the world after the United States and Russia respectively according to the Global Military Firepower ranking in the last two decades or so.

In short, it is inconceivable of what China could have done to help Iran ward off the combined attack by the Israelis and the Americans within such a short period of the conflict which has wreaked so much devastation on Iran most especially its image and reputation.

North Korea

North Korea is so far away from the scene of the conflict in the Middle East. Yet despite the fact that Iran is a quasi-democracy, both North Korea and Iran share the same authoritarian characteristic traits. While North Korea is more a pariah and more isolated State, Iran is arguably not at all. NK is acknowledged to have very limited contact with the rest of world whereas Iran has bilateral relationships with many a country.  Even with its acknowledged nuclear weaponry with which it has been threatening fires and brimstones on the United States and its Far Eastern allies including the Pacific region, NK is also well known at the same time that its power projection is only limited to the Far East region, specifically to the Korean Peninsula. NK’s involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian War has been admitted in the strategic quarters to be below expectations. Its soldiers have been killed like flies by the Ukrainian military. Another foray into the cauldron of Middle East lies outside rational consideration. So Middle East is automatically out of reach to the NK global outreach. At any rate, the Iran-Israeli/American conflict is not a ground war but basically modern aerial warfare. NK has no known Air Force capable of traversing the globe to carry out any rescue mission on behalf of a presumed ally. NK has very little diplomatic contact with the Arab nations including Iran. Therefore, it could not have decided to wade into the conflict to come to the side of Iran for any strategic reason except to look for trouble with the United States, Israel or both where it does not concern it at all.

In fact, NK has no reason whatsoever to intervene or interfere in the Iran-Israel row since its national security interest is not in any way at stake or jeopardised to any known degree. Moreover, there may have been too much of social media hype of how powerful NK is even with its nuclear arsenal which is at the same time well known not to be too perfect yet especially with the technology behind international ballistic missiles that could carry multiple nuclear warheads across continents. According to the Global Military Firepower index in the last couple of years, South Korea is ranked more powerful than North Korea. South Korea is ranked the sixth most powerful military in the world. This does not mean that NK is not a dangerous adversary and largely unpredictable. As African saying has it: the leper who could not lift a load onto his head is however capable of tipping over the jar of milk! In other words, NK can be a spoiler, a cook that can spoil the broth!

It is also well known that despite all the cantankerous antics  of North Korea and the negative vibes of Western media against NK, NK has displayed an appreciable kind of stoic and rational calmness restraining itself from peremptorily triggering a war in the Far East knowing full well it cannot stand and survive the firestorms of attack and onslaught of the combined forces of South Korea, Japan and the United States, Australia, New Zealand and The Philippines without suffering regime destruction and annihilation of the North Korean State.

North Korea has nothing at stake in the Iran-Israel conflict which could have dragged it into the conflict. Again, the secret fear of the American military might is still the beginning of wisdom for all rising or emerging powers. Nobody in its sane mind would be tempted to rise up to go and challenge the military might of the United States except on a suicide mission.

Conclusion

This article is meant to lay a ground work for further research and analysis of this epochal crisis that erupted between Iran, Israel and the United States in the month of June 2025 but which will echo into the decades to come. This article is a pointer to the forthcoming larger exposition of this epochal conflict in which we shall examine details of the conflict in the broad context of the substantial epistemological and ideological issues involved in the conflict.

However, from this initial article, nothing, and this can be repeated, nothing can obviate the disgrace, the humiliation, the loss of face in the comity of nations that Iran has suffered in the last couple of months.

And the thieves shall come in the nights like the Bible says, to cart away your belongings, nay the most valuable belongings: your pride, your self-proclaimed reputation, your propagandised military strength, etc. Iran turned to a jelly fish at the whiff of aerial attack.

It is, therefore, not too much to assert that the Iranian State is most probably good for nothing other than mouthing puerile propaganda of what it can do or not do. But when the test came to prove its worth as a State, it failed miserably. It failed disgracefully to defend itself against open attack by enemies that it has hitherto denied their existence or vowed to destroy in a manner akin to Armageddon.

What has been the net-result of its decades-long propaganda about its superiority over other Arab nations and confronting the United States? Iran professed its ability to fight a proxy war through its stooges such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and the former Syrian government led by Assad. This it has been doing for many years not knowing that the day of reckoning might come one day. And when the day came, Iran was found with its belly faced up.

Iran ran into its rat hole when the enemies came knocking on the front door. Iran ran into its bunkers while the nocturnal enemies entered the household and carted away the valuables they could lay their hands upon. Naturally, they did not cart away many things. They carted away only what they could hoist on their shoulders as loots like the Pirates of the Caribbean! They carted away the Iranian pride, prestige, self-righteousness, dignity and self-worth!

It is finished.

• Alex Ekemenah is the Chief Analyst of NextMoney and can be reached via 08168975679 or alexekemenah@gmail.com