Global economic growth in 2025 is projected to remain in subdued form, reflecting a continuation of trends already observed in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period, according to Comercio Partners, a high-end asset management and capital venture firm based in Lagos.
This disclosure, based on deep analysis of the world economy, is contained in the firm’s 2025 Macro Economic Outlook released on February 7, 2025.
“Both advanced and developing economies are expected to experience slower growth rates compared to the decade preceding the pandemic. Persistent macroeconomic challenges, shaped by geopolitical tensions and restrictive monetary policies, underpin this moderate outlook”, the firm stated in its report.
“Globally, 2025 marks a pivotal year. The world economy is poised for a slowdown as the after-effects of aggressive monetary tightening in 2023–2024 filters through financial systems.
“Central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, are expected to pivot towards a more accommodative stance, though the extent of rate cuts remains uncertain given lingering inflationary pressures.
“The U.S. economy faces a complex mix of potential fiscal expansion under the Trump administration and a recalibration of monetary policy.
“Meanwhile, China’s economy struggles with structural imbalances, weak domestic demand, and a volatile real estate sector, leading to downward revisions in growth expectations. These global economic shifts will have cascading effects on capital markets, risk sentiment, and emerging market debt pricing.
“Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory will be defined by inflation trends, exchange rate stability, and fiscal expansion.
“Following the sharp depreciation of the naira in 2024, policy adjustments, improved external reserves, and enhanced local refining capacity are expected to drive relative exchange rate stability.
“The recalibration of GDP through rebasing and Nigeria’s balance of payments improvement will offer a more accurate reflection of the economy’s growth potential.
“However, persistent inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, and elevated interest rates will continue to shape business sentiment and investment flows.
On the fixed-income market, particularly for SSA Eurobonds, [2025] will be shaped by the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory and Nigeria’s improving credit profile.
“Nigeria’s successful re-entry into the Eurobond market, coupled with rising foreign reserves and fiscal reforms, signals renewed investor confidence.
“However, external pressures, including global liquidity conditions and investor risk appetite, will remain key determinants of sovereign debt performance. Sub-Saharan Africa’s sovereign debt landscape remains mixed, with South Africa benefiting from improved political stability and fiscal reforms, while Kenya and Ghana face heightened risks due to fragile debt sustainability and credit downgrades.
“Ghana’s post-restructuring debt market faces a delicate recovery phase.
“In commodities, gold is set for a steady bullish trajectory, driven by central bank purchases and global de-dollarization efforts.
“Despite potential headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and fluctuating real yields, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact.
“The oil market, however, presents a more complex outlook, with OPEC+ adjusting supply strategies amid a backdrop of muted global demand growth and geopolitical uncertainties.
“The Nigerian equity market remains a landscape of both opportunity and caution. While high interest rates in early 2025 may initially pressure valuations, potential rate cuts later in the year could revive market sentiment.
“Consumer goods firms will seek relief from inflationary pressures, while the oil & gas sector is poised to benefit from domestic refining transformation.
“Banks will navigate capital raises and regulatory shifts, while the telecom sector anticipates a rebound following a difficult 2024, supported by tariff adjustments and operational efficiency improvements.”
- Alex Ekemenah