By Alex Ekemenah
Chief Analyst, NEXTMONEY
The way things are going, it seems it will be bullets that will be deployed to settle final scores between the Shiites and the Nigerian State.
In a press statement by the IMN released on its website, the Shiites claimed that 11 of their members were killed by police during the protest.
The press statement dated Monday, 22 July 2019 and signed by its President, Media Forum of Islamic Movement in Nigeria, Ibrahim Musa said “Eleven people have been confirmed dead and at least 30 others seriously injured as the police attacked a peaceful Free Zakzaky protest march in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja”.
“Abuja today yet again witnessed one of the worst cases of blatant trampling of the rights of citizens ever seen in the Federal Capital, when joint security forces consisting of both uniformed men and officers of the Nigerian Police Force and others in mufti, unleashed their fury on a Free Zakzaky protest by members of the Islamic Movement.
“The procession, attended by several thousands of persons, including very young children, the aged, women and the physically challenged, met with an extreme rage indicative of deep seated animosity the Nigerian authorities bear for the Movement.
“What actually happened was that the protesters started the procession from NITEL junction and on getting to federal secretariat the police cordoned off the road and started firing at them.
“A lot of people have been shot but for now we can only confirm 11 deaths, but several are injured, the figure for now stood at 30. Though we are aware of the fact that the security agents have been going around taking off those they killed from the streets.
“Even some seriously injured persons that were taken to Abuja University teaching Hospital Gwagwalada; the police went there and took away about 11 people they shot during the protest.
“We strongly dispute the claim by the police that the protesters shot at them because throughout our processions we have not been carrying any arms right from 2015 to date. It was also the police who shot at the Reporter of Channels TV, another indication that many innocent people were shot at by the police, including some of their own.
“In this era so social media the brutality displayed by the police today has been captured with some pictures showing the police setting up the bonfires and there are videos that captured the police carting away their victims”.
A separate story on the Police raid Abuja Hospital, where they were claimed to have evacuated injured free Zakzaky protesters, was also on the website dated Tuesday, 23 July 2019
The movement also exonerated themselves from the killing of the Police Deputy Commissioner and Channels Television journalist. The statement also dated Tuesday, 23 July 2019 and signed also by Ibrahim Musa.
“Yesterday the Nigeria police force headquarters issued a press statement in which it ascribed the death of DCP Usman A.K Umar in particular to the Islamic Movement in Nigeria under the leadership of the illegally detained Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky. We vehemently condemn such insinuation which we believe was done in bad taste to once again tarnish our hard earned credit as the only non-violent Movement in the country.
“A quick analysis of images and video clips showed that the Free Zakzaky procession was peacefully progressing prior to the brutal crackdown. It also clearly showed that the protesters weren’t bearing arms as usual and traffic was moving smoothly without hindrance.
“Furthermore, the images also showed the police, armed to the teeth, were intent on stopping the movement of the protesters, at all cost. Few other policemen and plain cloth security agents were seen piling used tyres for use to set bonfires. By the time the police struck, about a dozen members of the Islamic Movement had been killed. The police were seen picking the corpses to an undisclosed location, perhaps for mass burial.
“Also shot were the Channels TV reporter, Precious Owolabi and their colleague, a Deputy Commissioner of Police, whom photographs showed, was struck from the back of his head with the bullet exit in front, an indication that he was a victim of friendly fire.
“It is a known fact among the intelligence community that you don’t retreat from a mob with your back turned against them. This is one of the tenets of crowd control for law enforcement agencies. As if to hide this fact, the late policeman was hurriedly buried without any form of postmortem examination, which would have revealed the source of the bullet.
“It seems the security agents strategically killed the Journalist to turn the media against us. They also killed the police officer to incite the security community against us and to stigmatize us. They are the ones with guns and they are the ones doing the shootings and also doing the killings, then fraudulently lie to Nigerians that their victims are the violent ones!
“They are working hard to portray the Islamic Movement in Nigeria as a terrorist organization that is why they have started killing people in our name including our supporters. We decry such shameless play with people’s lives with reckless abandon.
“We therefore call on the federal government detaining our leader, Sheikh Zakzaky and his wife, Malama Zeenah Ibrahim, preventing them from seeking proper medication, to toe the line of House of representatives that some weeks ago called on it to address the root cause of this needless spill of innocent blood, which is the contemptuous disregard of a federal high court order granting the Sheikh is freedom and fundamental human rights.
“Finally, on behalf of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, we wish to commiserate with the friends and families of those needlessly killed by this police brutality. In particular, our heartfelt condolences to the slain officer’s and the journalist’s families and the Channels Television as well”, the statement concluded.
Also on the website was the story of the funeral service held for six of their members, martyrs” allegedly killed by Nigerian Police. The funeral took in Suleja, Niger State. The story is dated Tuesday, 23 July 2019
Sheikh Abdulhamid Bello led the funeral prayer. The funeral was attended by family members, friends and members of the general public on Tuesday the 23rd of July 2019. The six martyrs are :
(1) Shahed Harisu Magaji, Gabarin Darazo Bauchi
(2) Shahed Hussaini Yahaya , Barwa Soba
(3) Shaheed Ali Haidar Ibrahim Sulaiman, Rinji Toro Bauchi,
(4) Shahid Dahiru (Dogo) T/Wada Kaduna
(5) Shaheda Batula Muhammad Ghama,
(6) The family or relatives of 6th Martyr are yet to be identified.
What does the Press Statement of the IMN tell us?
Evidently, from a casual glance, the language composition of the press statements shows an organization that is deeply wronged and aggrieved by the Government. Even though the languages deployed have not graduated to high-intensity hatred, abuses and curses against the Government as typical of terrorist organizations worldwide, including Boko Haram and Ansar-ul-Islam in Nigeria, it nevertheless showed a body highly aggrieved and hostile to government.
Looking at the historical trajectory of the IMN, what one can safely deduce is that Government has allowed the conflict with the Shiites to fester from the time it was founded in Nigeria in the mid-80s or thereabout to the present time. It was a tardy management of an explosive situation.
The movement was allowed to grow to its current size and strength without Government taking any visible proactive measure to curb its influence over the year. This only tells us that our security and intelligence analysts and managers at that time were not foresighted enough in their analysis and management. Now that the movement has grown to its current threatening size and strength, Government is now running from pillar to pole to curb it. Too late!
If Government has done proper due diligence of actionable intelligence estimate, it would have arrived at the inevitable conclusion that the group would eventually become a threat from one degree to the other against the Nigerian State – given the manner in which it was founded and nurtured over the years.
The movement started in the mid-80s precisely under the same Buhari-led military junta then. The junta never did anything to curb or proscribe the group. We may never know the group’s profile compiled by the defunct National Security Organization (NSO) and its successors especially the Department of State Security under different leadership.
The blame for this security mismanagement cannot be laid on the door-steps of the current Buhari-led administration alone. All the governments since the first time Buhari came on board must share part of the blame from one degree to another. It was a colossal failure of security and intelligence analysis and/or estimate over the years.
Something is definitely wrong somewhere because a movement of this fanatical character cannot come out of the blue sky without leaving a trail to show its true character and come to threaten the legitimacy of a sovereign state.
A widening gulf
Another yawning gulf is opening up right before our eyes. It is something that we have all pretended not to be there. Now, it is threatening to spiral out of control. Can the Nigerian State cope with it?
Saudi Arabia is the father of all Sunnis in the world, while Iran is the father of Shiites. Both sides do not see eyeball-to-eyeball. Between them a wide insurmountable gulf has opened up for centuries. The enmity between the two antagonists can be seen in the sectarian warfare that has come to ravage Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Afhanistan and other countries. It is a case of divided house with a leaking roof. The fissures are here with us in Nigeria.
Triggers for religious-based terrorism
Terrorists need the following to start their campaign of terror:
Ø A set of convictions, ideology or doctrine (or shared value) upon which to frame and anchor their beliefs, worldviews and mindsets.
Ø A symbol of authority, often their leaders (possibly a charismatic or scholarly leader) who exercise a stupefying psychological and even physical influence upon the rank and file, command their respects and serve as hero worship
Ø A staunch opponent, an enemy, often the State, upon which they pour their venom, hatred and seek to replace or destroy
Ø Funding and finding arms with which to fight their cause
Ø A trigger, an accident, to start firing their habiliments of terror, to serve as excuse or alibi to start their campaign of terror
All these five ingredients were present in the case of Boko Haram by the time it started its campaign of terror and insurgency in 2009.
Some of them are already present in the case of Shiites movement in Nigeria now.
Mohammed Yusuf was reported to be a charismatic leader who exercised enormous control on his followers. Indeed, people were flocking to him in droves by the time he was eliminated by the law enforcement agents of the State. But rather than dampen the spirit of the followers, those rose up in fury, belching Promethean fire, taking up arms against the Nigerian State.
It took about 7 years for the bullets to start flying in the case of Boko Haram, i.e. from 2002 when it was reportedly founded to 2009 before the trigger was pulled.
In the case of the IMN, the bullets have already started flying at least from December 2015 to date. But it has not reached a point of no return even when the victims of the confrontation have been preponderantly members of the sect. Retaliation and sworn vengeance has not started coming from the sect ostensibly because the arms to wage such a vengeance are not available yet. When it is available, it is undoubtful they will hesitate to start retaliation given the animosity that currently exists between them and the Nigerian State.
The State on the other hand, has not officially declared and designated the sect a terrorist organization ostensibly because the sect has not taken up arms against it.
This means the battle line is not yet drawn. That is the dynamics of the situation now.
But is worrisome about the current situation now is that the Shiites have shifted their protest location from their home base right down to the Abuja, the very seat of power. That is quite significant, for it is pointing in direction that we are yet afraid to name. So for the past few days, what we normally watch on television about shootings in other capital cities of the world is now happening in real time in our capital city of Abuja where one can hear staccato of gun fires, see bonfires and corpses on the streets.
When you hear people saying they are ready to die, then know that they have crossed the Rubicon line, the threshold or the “Valley of Death”. They are no longer afraid of dying for their beliefs, whatever they are, on behalf of their leader whether justified or not, according to your perception, value judgment, etc.
Even if Zakzaky is released today, which is very doubtful, this can no longer resolve the friction between the group and the State. In fact, it can be expected that his release will only increase the friction as his followers will carry him shoulder high and praise him to the high heavens for his sacrifices and sufferings at the hands of their hated enemy. If he dies in detention, he will become a martyr and further serve as rallying battle cries for vengeance, etc.
So the Nigerian State is in a state of dilemma. It has unwittingly played itself into a tight corner from which it cannot emerge without negative implications or repercussions.
Is IMN a Terrorist Organization?
The answer for now is unequivocally NO.
First, government has not declared, classified and designated it to be so. This is a very important requirement because in the eyes of the security agencies (and consequently Government and the Law) it has probably not met the criteria for being a terrorist organization. It may be considered a nuisance and as such, for propaganda purpose, classified as a “terrorist organization” and therefore a threat to the State. But there are different levels of threat – the highest being when and where it take up arms against the State with the stated objective of overthrowing it and instituting a brand new type of government not known to the Constitution of the land, etc.
However, considering the relationship between the movement and external state actor, notably the Islamic Republic of Iran, considering the fact that Iran is widely regarded as a state sponsor of global terrorism; considering the fact of the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah for instance; considering the fact that funding has allegedly exchanged hands between Iran (through various channels) and IMN, it is not too far for the Nigerian State to start getting jitters in its spine that another terrorist organization might have been formed right its very nose like Boko Haram and its splinter group, Ansar-ul-Islam.
Second, Islamic Movement in Nigeria did not appear on the list of foreign terrorist organizations that are so designated by the United States Secretary of State in accordance with section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) as amended. FTO designations play a critical role in the fight against terrorism and are considered as effective means of curtailing support for terrorist activities and pressuring groups to get out of the terrorism business. (see http://www.state.gov/foreign -terrorist-organizations/)
However, given its antecedence of provoking conflicts, analysts are deeply worried about the true character of the IMN.
In a report by TELL magazine as far back June 2013, quoting international scholars, said IMN is equivalent of Nigerian Hezbollah. “According to international scholars on terrorism, “Nigerian Hezbollah has been in the making for some time. It is allegedly called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, IMN, which is a much more representative and active organization. The IMN is most identified with its leader, Sheik Ibrahim Zakzaky, who began his political career as a Sunni fundamentalist student leader influenced by the works of Sayyid Quth, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood radical ideologues, whose ideas provided the basis for Al-Qaeda’ ideology. Zakzaky’s aggressive Islamism led to his incarceration during the reign of military dictator Sani Abacha, earning him a cult status among a section of the Muslim poor and oppressed.
“In the mid-1980s, he moved to Shiaism and his movement has grown rapidly since he was embraced by Iran. Zakzaky’s opportunistic association with the Iranian regime was rewarded with substantial funds and training both religious and military. His movement is operating in Nigeria’s northern states of Kano and Kaduna. Zakzaky fights for the full implementation of the Sharia law and also demands that Nigeria abandon secularism and become an Islamic state of Iran model. According to Adel Assadinia, a former senior Iranian diplomat (who personally met Zakzaky in the mid-1980s while he was serving on the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee), IMN could strike Western interests on Iran’s behalf when the time is ripe.
“According to Assadinia, Zakzaky was given money to create an organized and radical Islamic force in Nigeria as “Iran’s objectives are to establish a local power base to exert influence over the national government and to act against Western interests”. A report of the Nigerian Security Organization noted that the training received by Zakzaky in Iran included “planning and executing students’ unrest” with a view to overthrowing the Nigerian government.
“IMN’s popularity is growing among the impoverished Northern Muslims and it is challenging the country’s traditional Muslim leaders. In January 2009, Zakzaky’s followers plunged the northern city of Zaria into turmoil after attacking the motorcade of the revered religious and cultural leader, Emir of Zazzau, Shehu Idris, on his way to a meeting on security in the city of Kaduna, at which IMN was to be one of the subjects of discussion.
“The IMN’s main centres of operation are the northern institutions like Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria, Bayero University in Kano and the Usman Dan Fodio University, Sokoto. Although the IMN commands the following of the impoverished, its leadership is exclusively comprised of graduates from these universities. Zakzaky argued that, “the current wave of attacks in the name of Boko Haram is a deliberate agenda to suppress Islamic resurgence in Nigeria with special focus on the Islamic Movement in Nigeria”. According to him, “A high-profile security report has clearly indicated the fear and apprehension of the so-called superpowers on the current agitation for Islamic revival in Nigeria, that the country will eventually become Islamic; and in particular Shi’a Islam”. Boko Haram is a Sunni jihadist terrorist organization” (TELL magazine, Lagos, June 17, 2013, page 24).
The chickens have come home to roost!
Because the memory of our so-called security experts is so short (a product of what is known as historical span deficit disorder) we have forgotten most of these buried in various media reports in the distant past.
Thus, when I read most of the current analysis, I shake my head in bewilderment.
The Difference between the Shiites and Sunnis
It is a simple but fundamental question: what is the difference between the Shiites and Sunnis?
John Harney answered this question in his article published in New York Herald on January 3, 2016.
A schism emerged after the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632, and disputes arose over who should shepherd the new and rapidly growing faith.
Some believed that a new leader should be chosen by consensus; others thought that only the prophet’s descendants should become caliph. The title passed to a trusted aide, Abu Bakr, though some thought it should have gone to Ali, the prophet’s cousin and son-in-law. Ali eventually did become caliph after Abu Bakr’s two successors were assassinated.
After Ali also was assassinated, with a poison-laced sword at the mosque in Kufa, in what is now Iraq, his sons Hasan and then Hussein claimed the title. But Hussein and many of his relatives were massacred in Karbala, Iraq, in 680. His martyrdom became a central tenet to those who believed that Ali should have succeeded the prophet. (It is mourned every year during the month of Muharram.) The followers became known as Shiites, a contraction of the phrase Shiat Ali, or followers of Ali.
The Sunnis, however, regard Ali as well as the three caliphs before him as rightly guided and themselves as the true adherents to the Sunnah, or the prophet’s tradition. Sunni rulers embarked on sweeping conquests that extended the caliphate into North Africa and Europe. The last caliphate ended with the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.
The Sunni and Shiite sects of Islam encompass a wide spectrum of doctrine, opinion and schools of thought. The branches are in agreement on many aspects of Islam, but there are considerable disagreements within each. Both branches include worshipers who run the gamut from secular to fundamentalist. Shiites consider Ali and the leaders who came after him as imams. Most believe in a line of 12 imams, the last of whom, a boy, is believed to have vanished in the ninth century in Iraq after his father was murdered. Shiites known as Twelvers anticipate his return as the Mahdi, or Messiah. Because of the different paths the two sects took, Sunnis emphasize God’s power in the material world, sometimes including the public and political realm, while Shiites value in martyrdom and sacrifice.
More than 85 percent of the world’s 1.5 billion Muslims are Sunni. They live across the Arab world, as well as in countries like Turkey, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia. Iran, Iraq and Bahrain are largely Shiite. The Saudi royal family, which practices an austere and conservative strand of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism, controls Islam’s holiest shrines, Mecca and Medina. Karbala, Kufa and Najaf in Iraq are revered shrines for the Shiites.
Saudi Arabia and Iran, the dominant Sunni and Shiite powers in the Middle East, often take opposing sides in regional conflicts. In Yemen, Shiite rebels from the north, the Houthis, overthrew a Sunni-dominated government, leading to an invasion by a Saudi-led coalition. In Syria, which has a Sunni majority, the Alawite Shiite sect of President Bashar al-Assad, which has long dominated the government, clings to power amid a bloody civil war. And in Iraq, bitter resentments between the Shiite-led government and Sunni communities have contributed to victories by the Islamic State. (Follow the link at https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/04/world/middleeast/q-and-a-how-do-sunni-and-shia-islam-differ.html)
Who Killed DCP Umar and Channels Television Journalist, Precious Owolabi?
Debate has ensued as to who killed Deputy Commissioner of Police, Usman Umar and the Channels Television reporter, Mr. Precious Owolabi.
Thorough investigations owe the onerous responsibility to determine the cause of death of the Deputy Commissioner of Police and the Channels TV reporter, among others.
First, the DCP was hurriedly buried (according to Muslim tradition) by the Police thus precluding further investigations into the cause of his death.
The Police claimed he was killed by the protesters even when all evidences and reports in the media showed that the protesters were not in any way armed with guns or any known dangerous weapon during the protest.
From the available pictures of the deceased that were widely circulated both in the press and social media (including the website of IMN) it was evident that the bullet that killed the DCP came from behind him suggesting clearly he was shot from behind, piercing through the skull. There was another bullet hole from his left side of the head indicating that the two bullets must have been fired and hit him consecutively if not simultaneously.
The picture of the Channels TV reporter was not available for examination.
Security analysts and manager have the responsibility to assess the prevailing atmosphere during the protest to determine what may have caused the firing of bullets from behind the DCP. Was it a product of trigger-happy policeman or the policeman was acting as an agent provocateur to provide alibi for shooting at other protesters.
If the bullets that killed the DCP, the Channels TV reporter and others were properly issued from the Police Command, it is easy to determine the guns from which the bullets were fired through careful forensic analysis.
In all likelihood, from what can be seen on ground, the Nigerian Police killed the two persons, among others, and should therefore own up to accept responsibility for their gross unprofessional handling of protesting crowd.