By Alexander Ekemenah, Chief Analyst, NextMoney
Executive Summary
The military intervention in Niger Republic that happened on July 26 2023 and the subsequent controversies that erupted across the global spectrum serves as both reflection and inflection points of the sad state of many African countries especially those in sub-Sahara (West African) region has fallen into in recent times despite the great promises of democratic rule in the last couples of decades.
Indeed, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the attendant wave of pro-democracy movements sweeping across the world especially in Africa, the Great Expectations were that the newly-installed “democratic” leaders though mostly through questionable electoral process would one way or the other lead to a new era of peace and prosperity – and for some to join the ranks of global leading economic powers.
Alas, it did not take long before the Great Expectations floundered or deflated as the many of the newly-installed African leaders succumbed to those primordial traits of prebendalism and kleptomania and showed themselves off as dwarves or pigmies in the governance plane. Some of the African dictators were not even touched by the pro-democracy whirlwind as they securely entench themselves in power.
It took the Arab Spring of 2010 starting from Tunisia to shake the tree from top to bottom, brought down both ripe and unripe apples, brought down some of these dictators and scattered them all over the place.
In the course of this unexpected Spring storm, Libya went under and is yet to fully recover till date. Libya is often cited as the source of many illegal arms flocking Nigeria from its northern borders with which Boko Haram insurgents and terrorists have been waging a bloody war of attrition on the Nigerian State for the past one-and-half decade or so.
Later Mali was added to that list to which nothing was really done about.
Yet the whole gamut of historical and political lessons of the first wave of pro-democracy movements and the Arab Spring storm were seemingly lost on the current crops of African leaders who refused to learn or unlearn anything from those epochal events of global dimension.
Instead, they talked of Africa having come of age! Which age? Age of corruption and sit-toght syndrome? Age spent learning or unlearning nothing useful for the further developments of the continent or what?
The Western powers’cannot pretend to be unaware of these underlining behaviours that cripple any meaningful effort at developments. They cannot pretend that all is well with or in West Africa especially when it comes to governance issues, transparent electoral process, public probity, etc.
All the above issues are subordinated to their national security interests in which case the extraction of mineral resources from the West African region tops the list.
They cannot pretend that electoral malpractices, money-bag politics (Nigeria is a classic case study here), corrupt and fraudulent practices in management of public resources, among other malfeasances are not hobbling democratic rule in West Africa – if we indulge ourselves the luxury of the concept of “democratic rule”.
Instead of helping to strengthen the institutions of governance, Western powers look the other ways when West African leaders misbehave, loot their countries’ partrimonies and even go to hide these loots in the “safe havens” of Western banks.
The Nigerien case is indeed pathetic when viewed from the above lens.
Niger is the second poorest in the world after Burkina Faso or so. Meanwhile, Niger has some of the strategic solid minerals in the world including uranium with which France powers up and lighten up its cities. Niger has the seventh largest deposit of uranium in the world. One third of France’s consumption of power is derived from Nigerien uranium and this has been going on for the past 60 years of the so-called independence for Niger Republic.
France and other Western powers alternately (but in a very diabolical efficient manner) use either the cover of democracy and military rule (wherever and whenever it suits them) to continue their exploration, exploitation and/extraction of strategic mineral resources from West African countries headed by dumb-headed but thieving corrupt leaders (Nigeria not excluded!).
Where is the justice in a “democratic rule” system headed by an incompetent leader that allowed foreigners to come and rip off his country, fleece and extract his country’s resources without just compensation?
France’s life existence is anchored on its ability to exploit others, kill others ruthlessly, mental poisoning through propaganda, build up its military power including its nuclear strike power.
But that ability will whittle down as the days pass by. Empires rise and fall as history has taught us.
If anybody has noticed in recent times especially since that boy called Emmanuel Macron came to power in Paris, France has been coming under increasing pressure and criticisms for its unrelenting and unashamedly exploitation of African recources wherever it has access. France, interestingly, is one of the biggest five foreign investors in Nigeria. But France does not receive much criticisms in Nigeria (either because France is not the direct overload of Nigeria or because of the pussilanimous or perfidious nature of the Nigerian ruling class and the Nigerian intelligentsia) as those other African countries especially Franco-phone African countries.
France is headed for a Goliathian Fall if it does not retrace and redefine its steps of prebendalist, predatory neo-colonial foreign policy thrusts of extraction of solid and liquid mineral resources from its Franco-phone fiefdom without consideration of just compensation and welfare for the victims of these policy thrusts.
But we do not expect France to change. It cannot change unless it is forced to change most probably by clash of arms. Algerian Civil War is a reminder of what would happen to France but that would be a child’s play in comparison.
France is reaching the end of its Empire existence. France would fall no matter how long.
The sun is gradually setting on French modern Empire of thievery, cruelty and oppression of the Franco-phone countries.
French allies should beware lest they also be drawn into into the cauldron of Empire-destruction..
This is the era for African countries to completely liberate themselves from the yoke of neocolonialism.
The Looming Second War of Liberation
With what has happened in Niger Republic and have also happened in five other West African countries (Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Sudan to the east) within the short spacio-temporal frame of just four years, it is obvious that we are facing a looming second war of independence in sub-Sahara West African region. It is obvious that Western powers are already at the loosing end. Democratic rule is also be assailed and assaulted as of no use. Khaki boys are riding the waves. These are some of the epochal contradictions that have to be resolved to birth a new era of credible peace and prosperity for all.
The whole of West African region without exception is on shaky grounds. Only the strongest may survive the coming storm or tornado of political revolt against the existing Establishment. Nature is rebelling against the idiocy and pussilanimity of our leaders, against their bad governance or failed leadership styles and worst of all, their inveterate corruption..
The Threatened Invasion of Niger Republic by ECOWAS.
Only mad men would want to invade a country as large as Niger Republic in the first instance and where the populace has been galvanized to defend their sovereignty in the second instance.
Has ECOWAS leaders forgotten so soon the situation in Libya and what is also currently going on in Sudan? What is really wrong with our ECOWAS leaders?
The Russian-Ukraine War is currently raging. Russia erroneously thought it could ride roughshod over Ukraine and within few weeks the war of conquest or “special military operation” would be over.
But the Ukrainians, led by that young man, President Volodymyr Zelensky, took the battle back to the Russians. Drones are now striking frequently at Moscow – something that could not be imagined few years ago. Russia has lost more than 200, 000 of its soldiers which is not a small amount at all in modern warfare.
It’s even pathetic for a country like Nigeria where the new President has just been “installed” barely two months ago, operating without a Foreign Affairs Minister, without a clearly set-out foreign policy objectives and thrusts to be leading the effort to invade its next-door neighbor who has been at peace with it since the independence of both countries from the prior colonial masters.
It fracks the brain to disambiguate why President Tinubu would want to lead such an invasion when he’s fully conscious that his home-front is not yet fully settled for him at all, when other West African countries are also not settled.
What really did the US and France promise President Tinubu in return for embarking on this ill-advised brinkmanship in strictly internal affairs of Niger Republic? What secret alliance exist between Tinubu and France and the US? What exactly did the US promise Tinubu?
While the situation is still unfolding in Niger Republic, it has been reported (Newsweek August 1, 2023) that Sierra Leonean Police Command had swooped down and arrested several Sierra Leonean military Generals for allegedly plotting to overthrown the civilian regime in Freetown.
Why is ECOWAS suddenly rattling the sabre against the new khaki boys in Niamey?
Indeed, what has ECOWAS really been able to do to those countries that have gone the way of the khaki boys since 2020?
Why has African Union allowed Zimbabwe and Egypt including Chad in its rank when they are ruled by khaki boys?
Why is President Tinubu so vociferous in condemnation of the military putsch in Niamey?
It’s amazing to watch how Tinubu is marshalling, commandeering and/or leading ECOWAS in its new-found battle cry against military intervention in Africa.
Why is President Tinubu seemingly crying more than the bereaved?
The reasons are not far-fetched when considered objectively, coldly, without any iota of emotion.
Tinubu stands the greatest danger of being the next target going by what has taken place in Nigeria cumulatively in the last twenty four years.
He’s facing the greatest risk. He is threatened by what has happened in Niger Republic. It’s too close for comfort. All the landmines even start from Nigeria through Maradi corridor to Niamey, landmines laid in insensate manner by his predecessor in office and that incompetent fool called Mohammed Bazzoum that has just been thrown out into the streets in Niamey.
So one can sense the panic that has suddenly come to grip Aso Rock.
Indeed, there is panic in the top echelon of government that the virus of the military putsch in Niamey and other places may finally come to infect the country because of certain fundamental variables.
1. The government still awaits the final judgement of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal which nobody can predict for now (as at the time of writing) where the pendulum (Sword of Damocles) may swing.
2. There is a degree of uncertainty pervading the political realm about what may happen after the PEPT judgment.
3. Most of the newly nominated Ministers, if not all, including the Service Chiefs, are not known gladiators. All of them are neophytes . At the slightest whiff of trouble, most of them will take to their heels. None of them is capable of coming out boldly to face fire in dousing any crowd of angry protesters that may pour to the streets – except to send those dumb-headed soldiers to the streets to shoot-at-sight any protester.
4. The massive corruption and acts of brigandage (for which there has been no clear case of restitution) that have been going on in this country for the past twenty four years, including various subversions of rule of law.
If the the much-anticipated final judgement of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal is not enough to give Aso Rock concern, what has happened in Niamey is now the game changer in the geopolitical environment that will inevitably impact on the local situation here.
So, one can sense there is earth tremor. The ground is shaking. The air is hissing easily perceptible to the ears. There is gathering sandstorm on the horizon without the use of binoculars or any other weather forecasting instrument.
Now, when those ECOWAS leaders said they may use force (military invasion) to reverse the situation in Niger i.e. force the khaki boys out, do they really know what they are saying?
Or should we take it they are merely grandstanding?
Who really is dictating that new regional or geopolitical tune?
Are they serious? Who is going to lead the multinational (regional) invasion force: Nigeria, Ghana or who?
How is the invasion going to be carried out when Niger is already buffered by Mali from the north, Chad from the East and Burkina Faso from the West?
Are you going to airlift paratroopers and insert them into Niger? Do you have the logistics?
The military airlift capabilities of the ECOWAS members is infinitesimally small when compared to a medium military power in Europe. So how are they going to do it including airlifting armored vehicles and other military equipment for the prosecution of the war?
On a combat zone, Nigeria is the only country left whose border is opened through which such an invasion can be carried out. So are you expecting the multinational joint task force to be assembled in Nigeria from where the invasion would start?
Are you reasonably expecting the Nigerian military to okay such an insane invasion anchored on a reason(s) it does not believe in and participate effectively in such an invasion?
Please, somebody give me a break!
Have you taken into account the filial relationship between the northern part of Nigerian population and Niger – and given what the immediate past administration in Nigeria invested in that country?
Are you asking for a full-scale religious war (between the proverbial jihadists and the infidels) on our doorsteps?
Are you trying to follow the footsteps of Western coalition forces led by the United States in invading Iraq and Afghanistan that led nowhere except the dungeon of hell?
Do you want to create another Syria in Niger Republic?
Do you want to create another Darfur or Sudan at your doorsteps or what?
Have you taken into account what the Russians and the Chinese might wish to say about such an invasion?
Have you gauge accurately the mood of the people you want to launch an invasion into their country – the stupid way Russia plunged into a war with Ukraine that is now bleeding it white?
What would or should other khaki boys-led countries be doing: fold their arms akimbo while their brothers in Niamey are being pummeled or what?
Have you taken note of the rising tide of hostility/animosity against the Western powers in recent times over various issues (failed promises) including the vexatious LGBTQIA+?
Again and again, where are these rafts of incongruent pronouncements coming from? Who is writing the script for Tinubu in particular?
In my view, that intention is not well-advised at all. It is a-strategic or un-strategic if not downright stupid.
Here is Nigeria where a multinational joint task force was put together in 2015 or so to help fight Boko Haram insurgency and campaign of terror in the northeastern part of the country.
The MNJTF has quitely gone into oblivion while Boko Haram is still festering.
Interestingly the members of that moribund MNJTF are Nigeria, Niger Republic, Chad, Cameroon and Benin Republic.
It was an effete contraption that achieved nothing – sabotaged by incompetence, internal bickering, external interference and most important of all the unwillingness of Nigeria (the chief victim) to want to end the insurgency (despite the public claims to the contrary) because of its political bargaining value.
Conclusion
Going to war with Niger Republic over its internal governance problems is a strategic cautionary tale. The Nigeriens are already poor enough.. So Nigeria and ECOWAS countries should not go and invade them to increase their miseries.
To go to war with Niger because of its internal change of government (where blood has not been spilled at any rate) is completely ill-advised. Nothing good will ever come out of it – except grandiloquent selfish interests of the invaders.
No one can predict what would be the outcome of such a proposed war. And it’s exactly for that reason that one should be cautioned strategically in going into it – except on a foolhardy mission.
Russia did not plan nor anticipate the mess it’s military is facing in Ukraine today. Let that be a strategic caution. The Nigerien military is most probably ready to make all sacrifices including using thousands of its civilians as battering rams. Is that what the ECOWAS leaders want?
As at present, there are 1,500 French soldiers and 1,000 American soldiers stationed in Nigerien soil.
If they are so keen about starting a war, why not increase their soldiers there and go straight to attack the Presidential Palace in Niamey and get the khaki boys inside flushed out? They are very good at doing such things. Why ask ECOWAS to do their dirty jobs for them? What are they afraid of in doing it by themselves?
Meanwhile, EU has suspended all security cooperation with Niger Republic after the coup (BBC News, July 31, 2023). European nationals are already evacuating from Niger Republic. 262 French nationals (not soldiers) have already arrived Paris (BBC News, August 2, 2023) Why? What are they afraid of?
Nigeria has cut off power supply to Niger Republic, again, according to BBC News of August 2, 2023.
What is behind all these actions?
We would recall that even during the the 2022/23 presidential election campaign in Nigeria, France was second home to candidate Tinubu which he visited several times to catch his breadth and recuperate from all manners of ailments assailing him then.
After he was declared the winner and having been sworn-in, his port of call was France where he went to participate in that jamboree of whatever it was.
There can be no more doubt that “something” is between France and Tinubu. It is one of those inexplicable conundrum in Nature when it is observed how a small boy dribbles an old man into a tight corner from which an escape is profoundly difficult.
General Abdourhamane Tchiani, the new military leader said insecurity, economic woes and corruption are the reasons for taking over the mantle of leadership in Niamey. Are these reasons not factual? Are they not manifest truths?
As we have earlier said, we stand with and for democracy and say no to military intervention and rule. But we also say no to the shenaniganisms of the civilian leaders.
But of all urgent national priorities for Nigeria at this point in time, invasion of of Niger Republic to go and restore rotten eggs of civilian leaders is the least if at all.
President Tinubu might be using the invasion to divert attention from the pressing domestic issues in Nigeria; go and waste our soldiers’ lives in a foreign adventure.
Have we not gotten our soldiers killed enough at the hands of those Boko Haram insurgents and terrorists?
We can recall what those poor lads went through at the hands of the Nigerian Military High Command, in getting their pays as at when due ; and for those who died at the warfronts in the Northeast, their wives were forced to take to the streets in protests to get their benefits paid to them. Till date some of them are yet to be paid.
Recommendations
To President Bola Ahmed Tinubu:
Don’t lead Nigeria and ECOWAS to war with Niger Republic. Lead alternative dispute resolution to the brewing crisis in Niger Republic.
Do not be a puppet to any foreign power or group of powers. Be cautious in reaching security alliance with foreign powers. Resolve our own internal security problems first. Institute security sector reform. Re-equip the Nigerian Military to be able to fight modern warfare
Restrain Nigerian security services (Police, DSS, NCDSC , Customs and Immigration) from their acts of impunity against the Nigerian citizens.
Deal with soul-shattering poverty in Nigeria first before exporting gunboat diplomacy to neighboring countries. They are our brothers no matter the occasional outbursts of disagreements. Charity begins at home
To ECOWAS.
Do not be fooled and be railroaded into an ill-advised military action against Niger Republic.
Put your house in order first
Engage in dialogue with the Nigerien military leaders. Where you cannot achieve lasting peace with dialogue, leave the option of war with Niger Republic alone. It’s not worthy it at all.
To the Us and France
Leave Africa alone.
Leave West Africa alone.
Do not support one faction against the other as you are trying to do in Niger Republic.
The US should resolve the danger posed to democracy in the US by Donald Trump first before trying to teach African countries how to practice democracy
To the International Community
Restrain the US and France from pushing ECOWAS into another inferno of war with Niger Republic that has been at peace with its neighbours since independence.
Cooperate with African to finding lasting solutions to their internal problems. Do not compound them.
Niger Coup Update: Watch and Pray!
